First Look
Putin dashes hopes of new Ukraine grain deal after talks with Erdoğan
The Russian president says a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain amid the war won’t be restored until the West meets Moscow’s demands on its own agricultural exports.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that a landmark deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain safely through the Black Sea amid the war won’t be restored until the West meets Moscow’s demands on its own agricultural exports.
Mr. Putin’s remarks dashed hopes that his talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could revive the agreement, seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Russia refused to extend the deal in July, complaining that a parallel agreement promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn’t been honored. It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade, though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year.
Mr. Putin reiterated those complaints Monday, while saying that if those commitments were honored, Russia could return to the deal “within days.”
Mr. Erdoğan also expressed hope that a breakthrough could come soon. He said Turkey and the U.N. – which both brokered the original deal – have put together a new package of proposals to unblock the issue.
“I believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” Mr. Erdoğan told a news conference in the Russian resort of Sochi, where the leaders met.
A lot is riding on the negotiation. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil, and other goods that developing nations rely on.
Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, which organized shipments under the deal, show that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China.
Grain prices shot up after Russia pulled out of the deal but have since fallen back, indicating that there isn’t a big crunch in the market right now, said Tim Benton, a food security expert at the Chatham House think tank. But the long-term picture is uncertain.
“I am more worried about the future, where the strengthening El Nino [weather phenomenon] might make 2024 the year to watch,” he said.
Ukraine and its allies have often noted that Russia’s move left many developing nations in the lurch, since so many were recipients of the grain.
Perhaps in an effort to address that accusation, Mr. Putin said Monday that Russia was close to finalizing an agreement to provide free grain to six African countries. Last month, he promised shipments to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, and Central African Republic.
The Russian leader added that the country will ship 1 million metric tons (1.1 million tons) of cheap grain to Turkey for processing and delivery to poor countries.
In addition to pulling out of the grain deal, Russia has repeatedly attacked the Odesa region, where Ukraine’s main Black Sea port is. Hours before the Sochi meeting, the Kremlin’s forces launched a second barrage in two days on the area. The Ukrainian air force said it intercepted 23 of 32 drones that targeted the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. It did not specify damage caused by those that got through.
Russia is hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western economic sanctions.
Some companies have been wary of doing business with Russia because of those sanctions, even though Western allies have made assurances that food and fertilizer are exempt. Still, Moscow remains unsatisfied.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Monday urged Moscow to return to the deal, insisting “there were no legal and political grounds for Russia to withdraw from the agreement.”
Monday’s talks took place against a backdrop of Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive against the Kremlin’s invasion forces.
In the latest development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov would be replaced this week. The job requires “new approaches,” Mr. Zelenskyy said, without elaborating. Mr. Reznikov on Monday published a photo of his resignation letter.
Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdoğan – authoritarian leaders who have both been in power for more than two decades – are said to have a close rapport, fostered in the wake of a failed coup against Mr. Erdoğan in 2016 when Mr. Putin was the first major leader to offer his support.
The Turkish president has maintained those during the 18-month war in Ukraine. Turkey hasn’t joined Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion, emerging as a main trading partner and logistical hub for Russia’s overseas trade.
At the same time, Turkey, a member of NATO, has also supported Ukraine, sending arms, meeting Mr. Zelenskyy and backing Kyiv’s bid to join the Western alliance.
